A risky and unneccessary referendum.

Tomorrow Wales goes to the polling stations to vote in a referendum that will, they say, determine the future powers of the Welsh Assembly Government. At least that is how it has been portrayed in the Welsh media, but the truth is more complex. The result of the referendum will not alter the powers of the Welsh Assembly Government.

This is an unnecessary referendum in a number of ways. Most crucially, there is no point of principle at stake in the referendum tomorrow. The Welsh Assembly Government already has the power to make laws (or measures as they are called). At present these 'measures' are done following an agreement with the Westminster parliament in London, and it can be a lengthy process. If the vote is 'Yes' the Welsh Assembly Government will be able to pass  laws without reference to London. Although this still only applies within a limited number of policy areas, they will not, for example, be able to pass laws about foreign policy, the judicial system, or immigration. So whatever the outcome tomorrow the actual powers will remain the same - a 'Yes' vote will merely change the way their current powers are used.

I have termed the referendum 'risky' because  people will not be voting on the technical issues that I have outlined above. To most Welsh people it will be a vote of confidence (or no confidence) in the first 14 years of devolution. And this is where the risk is involved; a very low turnout (say 20% or so) will inevitably demonstrate a serious level of apathy towards devolution in Wales and will give ammunition to those opposing further real powers to the Welsh Assembly Government. A very close vote on a very low turnout would be just as bad. A 'No' vote is almost unthinkable.

There are those that question the ability of the Welsh Assembly Government to properly scrutinise new laws; after all there are only 60 AMs and only one 'house' (as opposed to the Commons and the Lords at Westminster). The same critics question the quality of AMs and point to the poor quality of debates in the Senedd. In other words, the Welsh Assembly is not ready to pass laws by itself.

I can see this point of view, but I will be voting 'Yes' tomorrow morning (I will as usual aim to be the first voter in Caerwys, which is I know is childish). The Welsh Assembly may not be perfect, but it has provided an opportunity for many more people to engage in politics at various levels. The Senedd itself is a much better reflection of the Welsh people than is the House of Commons. A risky and unnecessary referendum it maybe, but I will still support the 'Yes' camp.