William Hague and the burden of history.

William Hague is a first rate historian. His biographies on William Pitt the younger, and William Wilberforce have been critically acclaimed. His wife Ffion is also an excellent historian; her work on 'Lloyd George's Women' was outstanding. William Hague may have begun his career as the 'Tory-boy' of the Thatcher years, but since then he has accumulated vast political experience as leader of the Conservative Party and latterly as Foreign Secretary. To be sure, he has the intellectual and political experience to serve as Foreign Secretary. So why has it gone wrong?

Two recent 'blunders 'in Libya highlight William Hague's plight. The farcical capture of the special unit of soldiers and the 'diplomats' by the rebel forces would be comical if it were not so serious. The hapless response from the Foreign Office suggests they were not in control of events. However, even more damaging was William Hague's public announcement that Gaddafi had left Libya and was on his way to Venezuela. Such is the power of satellite television that Hague's announcement was soon being celebrated by the Libyans.

Of course William Hague was making a dangerous blunder. I have been trying to work out why Hague needed to make the announcement at that point; what on earth was he thinking about? Was the insatiable power of the 24/7 media and Hague wishing to be the bringer of good news? Or was it another in the line of Weapons of Mass Destruction pieces of British intelligence and that Hague was not properly briefed? Why did Hague need to say anything at all? What could he or Britain possibly gain? Whatever the answer, William Hague and the Government have been damaged by this affair.

William Hague the historian carefully checks the reliability of the sources he uses to build up a complete biography of his chosen subjects. He must learn to apply the same skills to his political role.

Everton 1 Birmingham 1

This game summed up Everton's season: plenty of endeavour, but ultimately frustration. Heitinga scored an excellent goal to bring the Blues back to level terms with Birmingham. Other than that not much more can be said. It is unlikely that Everton will progress much further up the table, or that they will face the ignominy of a relegation battle. So with just nine games left the season now has little to offer Toffee fans.

Nil Satis Nisi Optimum: but tonight plenty of endeavour, but ultimately frustration.

My pitch side view.

A leader lost.

I was very impressed by David Miliband's interview on the Andrew Marr show this morning. He was relaxed, humorous, and reflective. His theme was the need for renewal within the Labour Party, and centre left movements across Europe. His intellectual ability to articulate complex political issues was as impressive as ever. I could not help wondering that this was a 'leader lost'.

David Miliband interviewed by Andrew Marr.

The Fox, Ysciefiog (revisited)

My blog entitled 'Last orders' for the Fox in Ysceifiog may have been a little premature. I heard rumours this weekend that villagers had grouped together to run the old place. I just had to check it out, and sure enough this evening the lights were on and the beer was flowing from the taps. As in the old days there were two guest beers, 'Facers' from Flint, and Champflower Ale made by the Cottage Brewery in Somerset. I tasted the latter and it was excellent.
 

The front bar in the Fox.

Referendum revisited.

The referendum result announced this afternoon has confounded the doom merchants, like me. The resounding 'Yes' vote certainly gives added legitimacy to the devolution project. Even the turnout at 35.4% was respectable by modern standards.

In Flintshire the 'Yes' vote won by the comfortable margin of 62.1% to 37.9% (although the turnout in Flintshire at 29.2% was amongst the lowest in Wales). So does it mean that Flintshire has stopped worrying and learned to love devolution? The low turnout still suggests that the vast majority  have no connection with what goes on in Cardiff Bay. Historically the county of Flintshire has been far more influenced by the north west of England and the great city of Liverpool. However something has definately changed in north east Wales; the results for Flintshire and Wrexham both show an overwhelming majority in favour of the Welsh Assembly Government exercising powers without reference to Westminster.

The shift in favour of devolution has been significant. The result of the devolution referendum of 1979 showed deep hostility towards the idea with 88% of the voters in the old county of Clwyd saying 'No'. Even in the devolution referendum of 1997 in Flintshire 62% of the voters still said 'No'.

The conclusion has to be that devolution has now been accepted by the voters of the most anglicised county in Wales.

A risky and unneccessary referendum.

Tomorrow Wales goes to the polling stations to vote in a referendum that will, they say, determine the future powers of the Welsh Assembly Government. At least that is how it has been portrayed in the Welsh media, but the truth is more complex. The result of the referendum will not alter the powers of the Welsh Assembly Government.

This is an unnecessary referendum in a number of ways. Most crucially, there is no point of principle at stake in the referendum tomorrow. The Welsh Assembly Government already has the power to make laws (or measures as they are called). At present these 'measures' are done following an agreement with the Westminster parliament in London, and it can be a lengthy process. If the vote is 'Yes' the Welsh Assembly Government will be able to pass  laws without reference to London. Although this still only applies within a limited number of policy areas, they will not, for example, be able to pass laws about foreign policy, the judicial system, or immigration. So whatever the outcome tomorrow the actual powers will remain the same - a 'Yes' vote will merely change the way their current powers are used.

I have termed the referendum 'risky' because  people will not be voting on the technical issues that I have outlined above. To most Welsh people it will be a vote of confidence (or no confidence) in the first 14 years of devolution. And this is where the risk is involved; a very low turnout (say 20% or so) will inevitably demonstrate a serious level of apathy towards devolution in Wales and will give ammunition to those opposing further real powers to the Welsh Assembly Government. A very close vote on a very low turnout would be just as bad. A 'No' vote is almost unthinkable.

There are those that question the ability of the Welsh Assembly Government to properly scrutinise new laws; after all there are only 60 AMs and only one 'house' (as opposed to the Commons and the Lords at Westminster). The same critics question the quality of AMs and point to the poor quality of debates in the Senedd. In other words, the Welsh Assembly is not ready to pass laws by itself.

I can see this point of view, but I will be voting 'Yes' tomorrow morning (I will as usual aim to be the first voter in Caerwys, which is I know is childish). The Welsh Assembly may not be perfect, but it has provided an opportunity for many more people to engage in politics at various levels. The Senedd itself is a much better reflection of the Welsh people than is the House of Commons. A risky and unnecessary referendum it maybe, but I will still support the 'Yes' camp.

Everton 0 Reading 1

A bitterly disappointing result! It was not meant to be like this: Reading a mediocre championship team were not expected to provide much opposition to Everton the premiership giants. After all they are also soft southerners, even sponsored by Waitrose, whereas Everton are sponsored by that tough northern (Chinese) company called Chang.

That is pretty much the end of Everton's season, apart trying to avoid relegation. It is hard to see where the mighty blues can go from here.

David Moyes may decide enough is enough and leave this summer. He can certainly motivate his team to beat the likes of Chelsea, but he so often fails against the 'lesser' sides.

Reading launch another attack against the Everton goal. Their victory was well deserved.