According to the 'combined' set of opinion polls published this weekend a general election tomorrow would see Ed Miliband lead Labour into government with a 65 seat majority. So why the disquiet his performance as Labour's leader?
There seems to be two forces at work undermining the view of his leadership amongst Labour supporters. The first is that his performance has been judged weak in many areas; he 'needs to develop a persona' quipped one senior Labour figure.
The second (and far more serious) problem facing Ed Miliband is the growing belief that in the long term he will be no match for David Cameron. Labour are ahead in the polls now against a background of deep and unpopular spending cuts, but in 3 or 4 years with an improved economy it will be a different story. The fear amongst many Labour supporters is that a televised election debate where David Cameron is pitted again Ed Miliband would need to be censored as it might contain scenes of political annihilation.
The trouble with Ed is that the media can't operate without a scene of binary opposition. He's not currently playing their game, and they don't like it.
ReplyDeletePlus the Tories always score well on Etonian/Oxford snide debating tactics - which work well on TV, and Ed's not bothered about that either.
Our public discourse isn't set up for intelligent discussion of the issues, it's a bearpit or gladiatorial structure which is bad for politics and bad for us.
(And I speak as someone who a) likes vehement arguments and b) has thought that every Labour leader in my lifetime has been far too rightwing.
I can't predict the next election. I just don't know whether the public will find Cameron's personal approach familiar and convincing, or whether it will have worn off. I also don't think many people will feel that the economy has improved. The national fiscal situation may have, but real people will have lost real jobs.
Well, I am not sure Ed is deliberately not playing their game. He seems so contradictory; he calls for a tough stance on welfare, when he condemns to the coalition when they do it. He condemns the NHS reforms, then charges them with a U turn. Ok that is simplistic, but he seems always to be playing catch up rather than setting the agenda, or having new ideas. I hope I am wrong and that things work out for him as he seems a genuinely decent man. I have no desire to 'political' desire to praise Cameron, but his mixture of libertarian populism may prove more popular than you think.
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